Since 2015, the discovery of 11 billion barrels of offshore oil—one of the largest finds in recent decades—has placed the small Amazonian nation of Guyana at the center of a major battle over fossil gas production in South America. A consortium led by US giant ExxonMobil, and including Hess (US) and CNOOC (China), is exploring the area.

While the country prioritizes maximizing short-term exploitation, it is also investing in forest-based carbon credit sales projects to offset its own oil emissions.

In the third installment of the special series Every Last Drop, InfoAmazonia explored the conflicting impacts of oil exploration, the credibility of climate neutrality pledges, and the risks faced by local communities—especially Indigenous peoples and riverside dwellers—amid changes brought on by the oil industry.

To achieve this, we analyzed contracts and environmental licenses, cross-referenced flaring emission data, and calculated the country’s carbon stocks using scientific monitoring from field experts and geospatial data analysis.

Our initial work began with an analysis of the offshore production areas in Guyana, using official maps, government documents, court decisions, and reports from independent organizations. The following data was utilized:

• Oil blocks. Data made available by the International Arayara Institute highlights the areas designated for the petroleum industry in the country, as well as the companies that control those blocks, and the stages of exploration.
• Data published in Production Sharing Agreements (PSA), the contracts Guyana’s government uses to regulate oil exploration and production, are available on official government websites.
• Lawsuits in the Guyanese court system involving oil operations in the country.
• Oil production based on data released by the government of Guyana and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

ExxonMobil estimates the Stabroek block holds about 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent, according to released reserve data. Calculations based on this figure and average international emission factors from the Climate ability Institute suggest complete combustion of these reserves would release about 4.0865 gigatons of CO₂.

This estimate excludes potential new discoveries in the Stabroek block and other blocks currently being drilled, suggesting a potentially greater impact.  The calculation considered only direct combustion emissions, excluding those from production, transportation, refining, and flaring, which were analyzed separately.

On the other hand, Guyana’s forests store 4.25 gigatons of carbon, equivalent to 15.6 gigatons of CO₂, according to environmental estimates. Analysis reveals that 26 percent of this carbon stock could be neutralized by burning known fossil fuel reserves alone, without considering other emissions from this combustion or future forest degradation as a side effect of the country’s oil boom. This casts doubt on the climate effectiveness of the carbon credits promoted by the Guyanese government.

Guyana faces a paradox, according to Joubert Marques, an environmental engineer and scientific consultant for this report. Despite the country’s commitment to international climate goals and its 2008 adoption of a low-carbon development strategy, it faces increasing pressure to expand oil production, a challenge that could undermine its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the document outlining each country’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions under the Paris Agreement.

The environmental license for the Liza Phase 1 field, Guyana’s inaugural production site, was granted in 2017. This permit explicitly prohibited flaring—the burning of natural gas linked to oil extraction—except during maintenance or emergency scenarios.

InfoAmazonia’s Geojournalism Unit, using satellite data from SkyTruth, identified 1,298 flaring incidents within ExxonMobil’s block areas between 2020 and 2023.

A survey indicates that 687 million cubic meters of natural gas were burned from 2020 to 2023, releasing 1.32 million tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere.

This volume is equivalent to the annual emissions of 287,000 cars and makes Guyana the second-largest emitter from flaring in the Amazon, behind only Ecuador.

We conducted a field trip to Georgetown, Guyana’s capital, from November 21 to December 1, 2024, including interviews with residents, experts, and representatives of local organizations.  Coastal areas, Indigenous villages, and riverside communities were also visited.

We counted on the scientific and field expertise of Joubert Marques and technical consultancy from the Arayara International Institute, which specializes in the analysis of the socio-environmental risks of fossil fuel projects.

Key sources for this report:

Name	Position	Link
Joubert Marques	Environmental engineer at the Arayara Institute	–
Trevon Baird	Researcher at the University of Guyana	https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevon-baird-b56899127/?originalSubdomain=gy
Vincent Adams	Former director of Guyana’s EPA	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_Adams
Sherlina Nageer	Environmental activist in the Green Heart Movement	https://www.instagram.com/greenheart.movement/
Frederick Collins	Director of Transparency International Guyana	–
Mario Hastings	Indigenous leader of the Kako village	–